Masskara Festival 2010

Bacolod City, Negros Occidental

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Barangay 17

Masskara Festival 2010 Street Dance runner up

Masskara Festival 2010 Best Choreography

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Barangay Mandalagan

Masskara Festival 2010 Street Dance Champion

Masskara Festival 2010 Best Mask

Masskara Festival 2010 Best Costume

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Masskara Festival 2010

Bacolod City, Negros Occidental

Champion –  Barangay Mandalagan

1^st runner up -  Barangay 17

2^nd runner up – Barangay Alangilan

Best Costume – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Mask – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Concept – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Choreography – Barangay 17

Click images to enlarge.

Masskara Festival 2010

Bacolod City, Negros Occidental

CHAMPION – Barangay Mandalagan

1^st runner up – Barangay 17

2^nd runner up – Barangay Alangilan

Best Costume – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Mask – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Concept – Barangay Mandalagan
Best Choreography – Barangay 17

Click images to enlarge.

Click images to enlarge.

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The post below will constantly evolve as a compilation of anything and everything that I can be proud of as a Filipino.

I’m not really that patriotic, I regrettably admit, but I do feel happy for my country.  It is looking brighter.  ”,)   We have had few things to be proud of, but now the numbers are increasing, and they all deserve to be celebrated accordingly.

It’s not all-encompassing pride for anything and everything Filipino.  I am an idealist, an optimist, but also a realist.

I assess things objectively while trying to take into account every circumstance.  For example, there is nothing to be proud of when you see the slums.  There is nothing to be proud of when you see the unhygienic practice of spitting left and right in public.  There is nothing to be proud of when you see a Filipino migrant coming back to the Philippines acting pompous and arrogant indicating clearly that he is unaccustomed to his newfound wealth…or perhaps he is just a plain egotistical bastard.  There is nothing to be proud of when you see the old rich of the Philippines abusing a waiter who is earning an honest living.  There is nothing to be proud of when you hear in the news that a housemaid is bullying and exploiting a fellow housemaid in Hong Kong.

Enough of my personal disclaimer and on to the good news.

Philippine Stocks to Surge by End-2011, JPMorgan Says

Sept. 9, Shiyin Chen, Bloomberg

The Philippine’s benchmark stock index may rise 18 percent by the end of next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited lower risks and a “bright” earnings outlook for the nation’s companies.

The yield on the Philippine 10-year government bond has narrowed more than 200 basis points in the past four months, reflecting lower risks after the election of President Benigno Aquino, said JPMorgan analysts led by Gilbert Lopez. Second- quarter corporate earnings also suggest the brokerage’s forecast for profits to grow 18 percent on average in 2010 and 2011 may be “re-rated upwards,” according to the analysts.

JPMorgan has a December 2011 forecast of 4,550 for the Philippine Stock Exchange Index, a target that faces “upside risk,” according to the report.

Even after this year’s gains, “the Philippines equity market is a consensus underweight,” the analysts said in a report yesterday. “The market, especially foreign equity investors, has not appreciated the country’s reduced risk profile.”

Philippine stocks are the third-best performers among the 12 largest Asian markets this year, lagging behind only Indonesia and Thailand. Still, more than half of the 46 emerging-market country fund managers tracked by EPFR Global, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm, have an “underweight” position in the country, according to the JPMorgan report.

‘Massive’ Bull Market

Economic expansion and earnings growth of 23 percent this year will push Philippine stocks into a “massive bull market,” Alex Pomento, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd., said on Sept. 6 in Manila. The benchmark index will reach 3,900 in the near term and extend gains to 4,500 in 2011, he said.

JPMorgan’s 2011 forecast implies a price-to-earnings multiple of about 15.5 times for the index, which is currently valued at about 15 times this year’s profits, the brokerage said. It initiated coverage of International Container Terminal Services Inc., with an “overweight” rating yesterday, citing growth in container volumes and contributions from three new ports. It also favors other companies that offer “strong growth amid relatively low valuations,” including Energy Development Corp., Manila Water Co. and Ayala Corp.

Philippines, Malaysia Set for ‘Golden Era’:  Technical Analysis

Sept. 7, Shiyin Chen, Bloomberg

Philippine and Malaysian stock markets may soon end 16 years of stagnation and enter a “golden era,” according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets technical analysts.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index is testing its record high reached on Oct. 8, 2007, after fluctuating between support at 975 to 1,075 and resistance at 3,447 to 3,896 since 1993, CLSA analysts led by Laurence Balanco said. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index is also poised for a breakout after it “drifted net-sideways” below the 1,332 to 1,524 range since 1994, the analysts wrote in a report.

The “secular bear markets” in the two Southeast Asian countries may be similar to ones in South Korea from 1989 to 2005, Indonesia from 1990 to 2004, India from 1992 to 2004, Singapore from 1994 to 2006, and the U.S. from 1966 to 1982, according to CLSA. Since then, benchmark indexes in the five countries have rallied at least 51 percent and posted gains of as much as 282 percent, the analysts said.

“If the PSE index and the KLCI are to adhere to these common secular bear market patterns, then both markets are on the cusp of entering a new long-term bull market phase,” the analysts wrote.

A “conclusive” breakout above 3,896 could take the Philippine gauge to 6,752 “in the years to come,” according to the analysts. Still, they said the market may yet pause as it approaches the resistance zone and as the benchmark index completes a five-wave sequence from the October 2008 low.

Cyclical Correction

“A partial retracement from the 3,447 to 3,896 resistance zone will mark the end of a 16-year secular bear market,” they wrote. “We would look at accumulating stocks during this cyclical correction.”

Resistance refers to the upper boundary of a trading range, where sell orders may be clustered, while support is where there may be buy orders. Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, concludes that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward and two steps back.

In Malaysia, a breakout may suggest a long-term minimum target of 2,610 for the KLCI index, according to the analysts, who didn’t specify a time frame. The gauge was little changed at 1,433.68.

Still, an “extreme” reading for the gauge’s 14-day relative strength index may be a warning sign of a pullback in the near term, the analysts said. The KLCI’s RSI, tracking how rapidly prices advanced or declined, was at 77.6 today, higher than the 70-level seen by some analysts as a signal that prices are poised to fall.

Credit Suisse Says ‘Take Profit’ After TIPs Rally

Sept. 16,  Shiyin Chen, Bloomberg

Investors should reduce holdings in the “overvalued” industries in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines following a rally that helped the markets to the biggest gains in Asia this year, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

The Jakarta Composite Index reached a record high yesterday, having advanced 32 percent this year, the best performer among the 15 largest Asia Pacific markets. It’s followed by a 31 percent gain in the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index, also at a record today, and a 26 percent rally in Thailand’s SET Index, which this month reached the highest since November 1996.

Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, or TIPs, “are the best performers year-to-date and more importantly above their 2007 highs,” Credit Suisse strategists led by Sakthi Siva wrote in the report. “We suggest investors take profits in the most overvalued sectors.”

Consumer staples, consumer cyclicals and industrials are the three most overvalued industries in Indonesia, based on a model that compares price to book value against return on equity, said Siva, who was ranked first for equity strategy in Institutional Investor’s 2010 Asian poll. Property stocks are the most expensive in the Philippines, while consumer cyclicals are the most overvalued in Thailand, according to the report.

‘Resilient Markets’

Stock markets in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia have been “remarkably resilient” and investor interest may increase, drawn by Southeast Asia’s economic growth and an equities rally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote in an Aug. 10 report. The region will “remain a magnet for inflows” after having outperformed this year, the brokerage also said on Sept. 3.

The three markets had started the year as the most undervalued according to Credit Suisse’s model, Siva wrote. She continues to “overweight” the three markets, saying that several industries remain “undervalued.”

In Thailand, which is still among the four cheapest in Asia, investors can find the biggest discounts in energy and financial companies, according to the brokerage. Telecommunications stocks offer the biggest discount in the Philippines while coal is the only industry trading at a discount in Indonesia, the strategist said.

Philippine Stock Exchange

14 September 2010, Shiyin Chen, Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG is “underweight” in Taiwan, India and China, “neutral” on South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia, and “overweight” in the Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore, strategists led by Ajay Kapur wrote in a report.The Republic of the Philippines

The Next Eleven (or N-11)

The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries — Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world’s largest economies in the 21st century along with the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China). The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

Goldman Sachs used macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education as criteria. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank’s 2003 paper on the four emerging “BRIC” economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Newly Industrialized Country (NIC), Big Emerging Market (BEM) Economies

The Philippines, by various measures, is now considered a Newly Industrialized Country (NIC), defined as countries whose economies have not yet reached First World status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts.  It is also included in the list of Big Emerging Market (BEM) economies, this list includes Brazil, China, Pakistan, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.  The Philippines also consistently features in the list of emerging markets based on market index makers Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), Dow Jones, and the Financial Times and London Stock Exchange Group (FTSE Group).

The Republic of the Philippines

GDP (Measurement of total economic output in a year)
Marcos: from $6B (1965) to $30B (1986)
Cory: from $30B (1986) to $53B (1992)
Ramos: from $53B (1992) to $67B (1998)
Erap: from $67B (1998) to $76B (2001)
GMA: from $76B (2001) to $186B –> highest GDP

Average GDP Growth (Measurement of economic growth in a year)
Marcos = 3.8%
Cory = 3.6%
Ramos = 3.7%
Erap = 3.4%
GMA = 4.6% (Highest among the 5 presidents)

Average INFLATION (Rise in price of goods & services)
Marcos = 10.3%
Cory = 10.4%
Ramos = 7.6%
Erap = 6.04%
GMA = 5.6% (lowest since 1966)

PESO-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE
Marcos: From P3.91 (1965) to P20.39 (1986) –> Peso falls -421% (negative)
Cory: From P20.39 (1986) to P25.51 (1992) –> Peso falls -25% (negative)
Ramos: From P25.51 (1992) to P40.89 (1998) –> Peso falls -60% (negative)
Erap: From P40.89 (1998) to P50.99 (2001) –> Peso falls -25% (negative)
GMA: From P50.99 (2001) to P45 (2010) –> Peso gained +12% (positive)

“END OF TERM” STATE OF ECONOMY
Marcos 1986: Economic Crisis (negative news)
Cory 1992: Power Crisis (negative news)
Ramos 1998: Asian Financial Crisis (negative news)
Erap 2001: Political Crisis (negative news)
GMA 2010: Global Credit Upgrade (positive news)

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE (From 2001 to 2010)
• 36 consecutive quarters of positive economic growth (unsurpassed by any past presidents of the Philippines)
• GDP grew from $76 billion in 2001 to $186 billion (+145% improvement)
• GDP per capita grew from $967 in 2001 to $2,051 (+112% improvement)
• Created 14.2 million new jobs
• 7% unemployment (the lowest since 1997)
• Peak economic growth of 7.3% in 2007 (the highest in 30 years)
• Gross International Reserves (GIR) grew from $15.06 billion in 2001 to $47 billion
• Built a total of 47,800 km of major roads comparing to 34,326 km built by combined Cory+Ramos+Erap presidency
• Link archipelago from north to south with 3 major nautical highways (Strong Republic Nautical Highway -SRNH)
• Electricity reached 99.39% of all 41,945 Barangays
• Wireless phone coverage is 98% with 80 million or 85% of 94 million Filipinos having a cellular phone
• Call Center and BPO grew from $24 million revenues (with 2,000 employees) in 2001 to $7 billion revenues (generating 500,000 employees)
• Tourism grew to $5 billion a year business with 8 million arrivals versus 1.8 million arrivals in 2004GDP Growth

GDP growth of The Philippines accelerated to 7.0 – 7.9 % this year.  This could serve as the foundation for poverty alleviation, nation building, and prosperity.  This could be our time… Germany had its time in the 1950s, Japan in the 1980s, United States in the 1990s, this time it is Asia’s turn and The Philippines has decided to join Asia’s leading economies rather than lag behind.

If the Philippines gets its act right this time, and if we can sustain this rapid growth, then the $ 167-billion economy of the Philippines will grow to become a 365-405 billion economy in 6-10 years time.  For purposes of comparison, this size is comparable to the current economies of prosperous countries such as Austria, Norway, and Sweden.  During the past 9 years, the Philippine economy has grown significantly larger and it is now larger when compared to Qatar, Kuwait, Slovakia, Hungary and New Zealand among others.

Leader in Renewable Energy

First in Southeast Asia

The Philippines has the first large-scale wind farm in Southeast Asia located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte.  The wind farm has been generating clean energy since 2005.

In 2002, the Philippines was able to source out 36% of its energy requirements from renewable sources. The biggest contributor to this was geothermal energy (21%) followed by hydropower (15%). The government has committed to double this to an impressive 72% by 2013.

This leadership is attracting investors from all over Europe, America, Australia and Asia.

Top 5 Biggest Green Tech Projects in the Developing World

1. Leyte Geothermal Field
   1. Location:       Leyte, Philippines
   2. Capacity:       708.5 megawatts
   3. Status:             Operational at Full capacity
2. Suzlon Wind Farm
   1. Location:       Dhule, India
   2. Capacity:       1,000 megawatts
   3. Status:             Operational at 650 megawatts capacity
3. Acme Solar Thermal Plants
   1. Location:       Haryana, India
   2. Capacity:       1,000 megawatts
   3. Status:             Not Operational
4. Qaidam Basin Solar PV Installation
   1. Location:       Qinghai Province, China
   2. Capacity:       1,000 megawatts
   3. Status:             Partially Operational?
5. Econcern Wind Farms
   1. Location:       China
   2. Capacity:       720 megawatts
   3. Status:             Not Operational

Source:  renewableshub.comNumber 1 in Geothermal Energy

The Philippines is the second-largest producer of geothermal energy in the world (behind the United States) with 2027 MW installed capacity but is poised to overtake the United States as world leader in geothermal energy.  Under an earlier plan, the Philippines’ goal is to raise its capacity to 3131 MW by 2013, allowing it to overtake the US.  The plan needs to solve the problem of pipe corrosion due to high acidity associated with active volcanoes prior to realizing the goal.

The United States Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has shown that the Philippines geothermal resources have a potential to generate 200,000 MW of power.

Source:  Philippine Department of Energy, US Dept of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)Tremendous Potential in Renewable Energy

A study conducted by the Renewable Energy Coalition states that the Philippines has the following renewable energy potential:

1. Geothermal – 4,531 MW  (200,000 MW based on the United States Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

2. Hydro electric – 13,097 MW

3. Wind -76,600 MW

4. Wave (Ocean) – 170,000 MW

5. Biomass – 500 MW (conservative estimate)

6. Solar Power – 5 ~ 5.1 KwH per square meter per day.

Source: Alternat1ve.com, renewableshub.comTop Ranked in Wind Power Potential

The Philippines and Indonesia have the greatest wind power potential worldwide.

Being an archipelago, the Philippines naturally has immense wind power potential and this is largely untapped with only 1 wind farm in Ilocos Norte but further projects are firmly in the pipeline.  These include:

1. PNOC-Energy Development Corp. (PNOC-EDC) 140 MW in Ilocos.

2. UPC Asia (100 MW)

3. Energy Logics (40-60 MW)

4. A Spanish firm in Burgos province (10-15 MW)

5. Aklan project (10-15 MW)

6. Bulalacao project (40 MW)

Further projects in 16 sites that are ideal locations for wind farms have been offered by the Philippine Department of Energy to investors.  The sites are:

Bago City and Cauayan in Negros Occidental; Carmen and Oslob in Cebu; Allen-Lavesares and Calbayog City in Northern Samar; Siquijor; Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte; Bantay, Ilocos Sur; Bani and Bolinao in Pangasinan; Maconacon, Isabela; Tagaytay, Cavite; San Andres, Quezon; and Mercedes and Daet in Camarines Norte.

Other projects being studied include those US firm Constellation Energy Corp.  The company is studying two projects in Ilog, Negros Occidental and Bais City, Bayawan, Tanjay and Pamplona in Negros Oriental.

The best places for wind power projects in the Philippines are found in the islands of Batanes, Babuyan Island, Ilocos Norte, Mindoro, Samar, Leyte, Panay, Negros, Cebu and Palawan.

Source:  alternat1ve.com

Date:  Dec. 9

Rating:  Credit Suisse

Analyst:  Dante Tinga

Source:  Bloomberg

Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI PM): Raised to “outperform’ from “neutral”.  13.50 PhP.

JG Summit Holdings Inc. (JGS PM):  “neutral”.  24.67 PhP.

San Miguel Corp. (SMC PM):  “outperform”.   153.92 PhP.

Date:  Dec. 15

Rating:  Credit Suisse

Analyst:  Dante Tinga

Source:  Bloomberg

Philippine banks  -  “underweight”.  Third-most expensive in the region, loan growth slows and trading gains decline.

Bank of the Philippine Islands  -  “underperform”.

Banco de Oro Unibank Inc.  -  ”neutral”.

Security Bank Corp.   –  “neutral”.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.   –  “outperform.”   84.00 PhP.

Date:  30 December 2010

Sources:  Reuters, Emerginvest

Author:  Viparat Jantraprap

Topic:  Comparative Foreign Inflows to the Philippine Stock Exchange (ALLPI, PSEi) , Jakarta Composite Index , and Stock Exchange of Thailand  for the year 2010.

Philippine Stock Exchange

Foreign Inflows:  $ 2.77 billion.

2010 All Shares Index Performance:  Up 56 %.

2010 PSEi Performance:  Up 38 %.

Jakarta Composite Index

Foreign Inflows:  $ 2.18 billion.

2010 Performance:  Up 46 %.

Stock Exchange of Thailand:

Foreign Inflows:  $ 1.9 billion.

2010 Performance:  Up 40 %.

  
Date:  13 December 2010 
Source:  Reuters 
Author:  Erik dela Cruz 
Topic:   Projected energy shortfall for Luzon in 2011.  

Luzon's peak demand projected to hit 7,900 MW in 2011, 300 MW higher than 2010.  
"If 7,900 MW peak demand happens, the calculations show we are going to be 300 MW short," Jose Rene Almendras, RP Energy Secretary.   
 "It takes at least three years to build power plants."   
"Generation projects (for Luzon) should have come as early 2009 and yet nothing happened."  "We need to plan three years, or four years, or ideally even five years ahead."  Jose Almendras.  
2,700 megawatts from new coal plants come on stream in 2013.  
A 600-megawatt coal-fired power plant being built by GNPower Co Ltd of the United States in Bataan province northwest of Manila would be the first facility to operate, Almendras said.  
The other coal-fired power projects will be built by:
San Miguel Corp
Manila Electric Co (Meralco) 
Aboitiz Power Corp.

 

Moody’s Investors Service raised the outlook on foreign-currency deposit ratings of seven Philippine banks to positive from stable, in line with its decision on the sovereign rating outlook. 
 The seven banks are 
Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. 
Bank of the Philippine Islands 
Metropolitan Bank and Trust Company 
Philippine National Bank 
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp 
Land Bank of the Philippines 
Development Bank of the Philippines  

Date:  7 January 2010 
Rating:  CLSA 
Analyst:  Chesca Bugia 
Source:   Bloomberg
Stock:  Nickel Asia Corp (NIKL)
Target Price (12-month):  PhP 21.00

Date:  15 January 2011

• Rating:  Macquarie Group Ltd.
• Analyst:  Alex Pomento
• Source:  Bloomberg
• Stock:  Aboitiz Power (AP)
• Target Price (12-month):  Php 31.34

 Date: 18 January 2011 

• Rating: Philippine Equity Partners
• Source: Bloomberg
• Stock: Unionbank of the Philippines (UBP)
• Target Price (12-month): Php 71.00

Date: 9 March 2011

• Rating: Philippine Equity Partners
• Analyst: Edser Trinidad
• Source: Bloomberg
• Stock: Aboitiz Power (AP:PM) raised to buy from hold
• Target Price (12-month): Php 38.60

Date:  9 March 2011

Topic:  FTSE Global Equity Index Series Asia Pacific ex Japan 2011 Annual Review

FTSE Large Cap Asia Pacific ex Japan Index inclusions

• AEV
• AP
• ALI

FTSE Small Cap Asia Pacific ex Japan inclusions:

• DMC
• SCC
• MPI
• PNB

FTSE All-World Index inclusions: 

• AEV
• AP

FTSE All Cap (LMS) Index inclusions: 

• AEV
• DMC
• MPI
• PNB
• SCC

Exclusion/s:  

• PCOR excluded from all indices

Effective Date:  21 March 2011

Topic: MSCI Philippine Index inclusions:

 Effective November 2010:

• AP
• AGI

effective 28 February 2011:

• AEV

Date:  25 March 2011

• Rating:  JPMorgan
• Source:  Bloomberg
• Stock:  CEB target price cut from Php 145 to Php127

Date:  25 March 2011

• EDC to bid for concession areas in Chile

Topic:   CLSA “The Moat Report”

• Date:  5 April 2011
• Analyst:  CLSA
• Content : Asia’s leading, independent brokerage and investment group CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in a recent report named Phoenix Petroleum Philippines (PNX) one of the other economic moats in the Philippines, along with several top companies. The report follows CLSA’s “The Moat Report” highlighting 246 companies in Asia that generated return ratios above cost of capital, sustained earnings growth, and were at undemanding valuations. “Economic moats” are the basis for this durable competitive advantage. The moats, in medieval times, moats were deep wide ditches with water surrounding a fortress. Warren Buffet coined the term “economic moat” to refer to the ability to sustain such an advantage. Companies that have a moat around their operation can be said to have a business franchise. They generally have pricing power that leads to wide margins and good return ratios. Out of the 246 companies CLSA mentioned, four are from the Philippines. These are PLDT, SM Investments, ICTSI, and Jollibee. “Aside from the 4 companies mentioned, we believe that there are still other moats in the Philippines and these are Aboitiz Power, DMCI Holdings, Universal Robina, Alliance Global, and Phoenix,” said CLSA in their April 1, 2011 Market Outlook report written by analyst Alfred Dy. “These names should continue to generate positive EVA and have strong franchises and consequently result in share price gains over the next decade.” CLSA cited Phoenix Petroleum’s strong 69% year-on-year earnings growth in 2011 underpinned by aggressive service station roll-out this year, and inexpensive valuations (mid-single-digit PEs) further highlighted by strong earnings growth and 24-29% return on equity. It said the company’s 8.8x PE at target price is still at a substantial 40% discount to the market PE. Phoenix Petroleum Philippines, Inc. is a leading domestic independent petroleum company engaged in the storage, hauling and distribution of petroleum products in the Philippine market through its national retail network and so institutional accounts.

Topic:   2Q2011 Philippine GDP Growth

• Date:  30 August 2011
• Content :    Gross domestic product increased 3.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a median estimate of 4.1 percent.     First quarter 2011 GDP growth was revised to 4.6 percent.